مديريت

...and yet we still rely on consumer research techniques that were designed by statisticians in the 1950s. I'm not a psychiatrist, but it seems to be that there is something vaguely neurotic about an industry that continues to do the same thing, at great expense, knowing full well the outcome will have a 90% probability of being wrong. Innovation needs a fundamentally new and different approach.

Why does the traditional statistics based research not work?

I think the problem has more to do with the real lives of people in a world that is much less predictable than it once was. In the case of a high frequency CPG, let’s say toothpaste, it is almost impossible for someone to accurately predict how they will react when they are in the store buying toothpaste, unless they are rigidly brand-apathetic (that is, they always use the same brand no matter what, which is generally because it is easier to stay with what they are doing than try to figure out all the other alternatives).

For instance, a respondent might say in anticipation of buying toothpaste (in a research or interview or any other setting – even in-store) that he definitely will or is somewhat or very likely to buy a new product, even if it costs ten cents more. However, when I am actually in the process of buying the product, my actual decision will be based on a number of unanticipatable variables: how much money do I have in my pocket, how full is my basket and how much have I already spent, am I feeling frugal today, is the toothpaste only for me or is it for the family, what other brands are on sale, and so on.

Clearly people’s projection of buying behavior, which we call buying intent, is necessarily unreliable. In a simpler world, when brands behaved in an orderly fashion and consumers lived in a rigidly budgeted, regulated world, this may have been different.

What is the alternative?

Simply put, people’s predictions of amalgamated behavior is likely to be much more accurate than their prediction of their own behavior. This is at the heart of the economic principle captured in James Surowieki’s book, The Wisdom of Crowds.

ProteanPrediction Collective Wisdom Engine is a proprietary process that integrates this theory into a very practical market-ready system. As a component of any innovation development strategy it can be used to guide development teams in incremental steps, rather than quantum (and very expensive, but very risky) leaps.

The Collective Wisdom Engine is particularly powerful when used as a mechanism to involve the entire organization in the process. I am not sure there is any proof positive, but it makes sense that the collective wisdom of the people who work with the product and brand on a daily basis is likely to be more interesting than the collective wisdom of a random or specific external crowd (although, not necessarily more accurate). It can also be accomplished at a fraction of the costs of traditional, research based methodologies.